Hark, the annual cake week is upon us! Formerly known as the SEC-SoCon Challenge, conferences across the country have joined in the annual tradition of taking the weekend before Thanksgiving for some personal reflection time. 

As a treat, we do get two ranked matchups and a smattering of playoff-relevant games (mostly of the this team vying for an at-large big cannot lose this one variety, more on those later in this article), but for the most part there isn’t much to plan around.

Our recommendation: spend your Saturday catching up on the most recent season of Great British Bake Off, think about what dishes to make for your in-laws next week, and keep one eye on your score app of choice to jump in for consequential happenings.

In the meantime, we’re going to look at the seven(!!) SEC teams that still have playoff hopes and figure out whether their biggest obstacle to playing in January is a Signature, Technical or Showstopper challenge.

*Note: All rankings are from the CFP committee, and playoff odds are from ESPN’s FPI

No. 3 Texas A&M Aggies (10-0), 99.1%

Showstopper: Beat Texas

The odds are clear: the Aggies are making the playoff field unless they lose to Samford this weekend. But losing to hated rival Texas would be a particularly bad omen – both because it would (likely) keep the Aggies from playing for their first SEC Championship and a bye, or even worse, let the Longhorns back into the playoff picture.

Most importantly, though, Mike Elko needs to keep the vibes high in College Station by putting a massive bow on the best regular season in modern program history. A fanbase accustomed to late-season collapses needs to maintain as much momentum as possible or things could unravel in a hurry, at the worst possible moment.

No. 4 Georgia Bulldogs (9-1), 99.1%

Technical: Don’t lose to Georgia Tech

There’s a pretty good chance that Clean, Old-Fashioned Hate is a virtually meaningless game, fittingly played in a “neutral” NFL stadium rather than on one of the campuses. The Dawgs have all but locked up a playoff spot, and Tech could be penciled into the ACC title game with better odds to win their way in against Virginia or SMU than the meatgrinder that is Georgia’s defense. 

Georgia might also be the only team that would prefer not to make the SEC title game, instead resting up for a first-round home playoff game. An NFL mindset true to the location would have both teams hesitant to show their hands or take on any risk.

But this is still college football, and these two teams still hate each other – it’s right there in the name! Losing to the Yellow Jackets would mark a significant program crossroads for Kirby Smart, where his in-state rival is building momentum at a time when it’s become obvious no one can build the super teams we saw in Athens for the better part of the last decade. 

Georgia can’t win a national title in this regular season, but it can put itself on the chopping block with a slip-up.

No. 6 Ole Miss Rebels (10-1), 84.3%

Technical: Figure out the Lane Kiffin mess

Truthfully, I have no idea why FPI has these odds so low. The Rebels should be in the playoff even with a shock loss in the Egg Bowl. Other projections have Ole Miss closer to a 96% chance to make the playoffs, which feels more accurate.

More important than any on-field result before January is the resolution of a maybe/maybe-not ultimatum supposedly handed down to Lane Kiffin to make a decision on where he’ll be calling plays from next season. Ole Miss doesn’t seem to have any real leverage in this situation, and Lane loves attention, so don’t expect anything to be mended before Thanksgiving but we’ve reached official distraction status during what should be a joyous season in Oxford. 

No. 8 Oklahoma Sooners (8-2), 53.2%

Showstopper: Win out

Each baker enters an episode of GBBO with a singular goal in mind – survive the first two challenges without putting themselves on the proverbial chopping block, then wow the judges with their meticulously planned Showstopper. Oklahoma has now made it through the meat of what once appeared to be the most difficult schedule in the country (in retrospect, it’s not quite as impressive) with playoff hopes firmly in its own control.

The Sooners don’t need style points, but they have to win their two remaining games against ailing Missouri and LSU teams. They will be favored in each game, but percentages are percentages and most advanced analytics give Oklahoma a roughly 50% chance to win both. Don’t put Matcha in the cake now.

No. 10 Alabama Crimson Tide (8-2), 62.0%

Technical: Survive Auburn

The Iron Bowl is going to be weird, and likely ugly. It won’t be the kind of game that Alabama can look competent and lose, meaning they can’t afford to lose it at all. The Committee has only had two consistent throughlines in who it lets into the playoff and who it leaves out over the years: don’t have a blowout loss, and if you lose one bad game you can’t lose another no matter the opponent. 

The Tide were fortunate to have the FSU disaster happen the first week of the season, and built up enough goodwill to mostly get a pass on it. Losing another eliminates all benefit of the doubt, and they will find themselves behind a Vanderbilt team they beat on the road in the pecking order.

No. 14 Vanderbilt Commodores (8-2), 16.4%

Signature: Win, and win pretty

I’ve said a few time this year that there is no way a 10-2 SEC team gets left out of the playoff. Well, surprise, it’s now a definite possibility and the conference’s weakest brand name is the one that might be on the wrong end of things.

The Commodores need a few mechanisms to go their way to get into the field, but do also have the opportunity to help themselves out. Lacking a signature win on the season, the Commodores need to beat Kentucky by multiple scores and then beat Tennessee convincingly (but maybe not convincingly enough that the Volunteers become another unranked win) to offer a reason for the committee to jump them ahead of BYU and/or Utah and stay ahead of Miami and Georgia Tech.

Beyond that, Vanderbilt would greatly benefit from a Missouri win this week – both by strengthening their best win, and eliminating another at-large contender in Oklahoma.

No. 17 Texas Longhorns (7-3), 7.1%

Showstopper: Hand of God

Full stop, I don’t think this is possible. Too much needs to happen for even a convincing win over Texas A&M (which might in turn devalue A&M too much to help) to get the Longhorns into the field. But the percentages say there’s a chance, so they’re here.

Here’s the only pathway that makes any amount of sense to me:

Seems unlikely!

The Braves hired Walt Weiss to take over as manager two weeks ago and I haven’t been able to get the “Sorry about your arm, Walt Weiss” line from this song out of my head since. If you haven’t seen The Lonely Island’s The Unauthorized Bash Brothers Experience, it’s a wonderfully absurd 30-minute musical about the 1980s Oakland As that has no reason to exist other than that it does and is very good.

I like taking on an uncomfortably large dessert order for Thanksgiving, way more to come on that next week, and this Ube Cheesecake from Nicole Hopper is going to make its debut in the rotation this year.  

No. 3 Texas A&M vs Samford (Noon, SEC Network)

Samford is 2-82-3 all-time against SEC teams, with the last win coming in 1934 against Ole Miss. Major props to the Samford SID for actually pointing this out in the official game notes.

No. 8 Oklahoma vs No. 22 Missouri (Noon, ABC)

Mizzou can run the ball as well as anyone in the country, but is either starting a freshman who has looked shaky in two starts or a guy who was in an air cast on the field a month ago. Oklahoma is better at stopping the run than anyone else in the country. Missouri’s defense has a slight edge on the Sooner offense, but John Mateer finally had an off week to get healthy.

All signs point to a close Oklahoma win, but don’t count the Tigers out – even if their coach might be a little distracted at the moment.

No. 4 Georgia vs Charlotte (12:45 pm, SEC Network)

Sim to end.

No. 10 Alabama vs Eastern Illinois (2 pm, SEC Network Plus)

The Panthers just lost by 30 points to something called Lindenwood, I don’t think you’re going to need to tune in to this one.

Auburn vs Mercer (2 pm, SEC Network Plus)

Mercer is a really good FCS team that runs the triple option. I’m not saying to keep an eye on the scoreboard, but this is an established trope for a November upset, if nothing else.

No. 14 Vanderbilt vs Kentucky (3:30 pm, ESPN)

Yet another test to see if this really is a different Vanderbilt team. Kentucky is officially not bad, and is desperate for a win to earn a bowl bid, while the Commodores need all the style points they can get.

No. 17 Texas vs Arkansas (3:30 pm, ABC)

This matchup felt a lot more fun two months ago. Still worth seeing if the Hogs can (finally) win a game for interim head coach Bobby Petrino and fully doom Texas’ season.

South Carolina vs Coastal Carolina (4:15 pm, SEC Network)

Battle of the fancy chickens. Coastal’s Chanticleer nickname is actually meant to be a derivative of the Gamecock moniker, back when Coastal was a branch of the USC system.

No. 20 Tennessee at Florida (7:30 pm, ABC)

This game just shouldn't take place in November. We have strayed so far from the light.

LSU vs Western Kentucky (7:45 pm, SEC Network)

Genuinely nothing to play for here. Western Kentucky is a good CUSA team, LSU is a bad SEC team. Send me the score notification in the morning. 

Very fun tribute to Homestar Runner by the Washington State Cougar Marching Band. More of this, please.

FIU took the field with throwback nickname the Sunblazers last week, which is infinitely better than the Panthers moniker they’ve gone by since 1987. Please, smaller state schools, embrace goofiness and stick with your fun old mascots!

Hawai’i at UNLV (10:30 pm, FS1)

Two really good Mountain West teams battle it out with a potential spot in the conference championship game on the line.

Death By Lightning (Netflix)

If I could pitch this show in one sentence: A parallel storyline in which James Garfields reluctantly realizes his fate to save a fractured nation, Tom Wambsgans is a delusional grifter who decides he must assassinate James Garfield, and Nick Offerman plays himself as Chester Arthur. A delightful four episode watch!

No. 13 Miami at Virginia Tech (Noon, ESPN)

James Franklin is going to put on a massively impressive PR spectacle during this game. Also, Miami better win by a lot.

FCS: The Game No. 10 Harvard at No. 25 Yale (Noon, ESPNU)

The first-ever Ivy League auto bid to the FCS playoffs is on the line in the 141st meeting between these teams. Yale has won three in a row against the Crimson, and would love to once again keep their rivals from outright winning the league.

FCS: Brawl of the Wild No. 2 Montana vs No. 3 Montana State (2 pm, ESPN+)

Montana is the best team not named North Dakota State in FCS, but will need to win this rivalry game to secure a bye in the playoffs. Tickets are going for a minimum of $221 on SeatGeek, if you needed any indication of local interest.

No. 7 Oregon vs No. 15 USC (3:30 pm, CBS)

The Trojans picked up the first honest-to-god culture win of his USC tenure by winning a slopfest against Iowa. They’ll need to do it again to keep playoff hopes alive, against an Oregon team that everyone might be forgetting as a true national title contender.

No. 9 Notre Dame vs Syracuse (3:30pm, NBC)

The Irish are definitely in the playoff if they win out, and will remain in this section solely for the purpose of noting which teams needs to win each week.

No. 24 Tulane at Temple (3:45 pm, ESPNU)

A win for the Green Wave locks up a spot in the AAC title game, which is almost certainly a play-in for the G5 playoff bid. Temple has been feisty under new head coach KC Keeler, but might not have the juice to knock off Tulane just yet.

No. 12 Utah vs Kansas State (4 pm, ESPN2)

Utah has played one (1) game decided by fewer than 24 points this year – a 24-21 loss in the Holy War that may keep the Utes out of the playoff. The Utes need to keep winning, but even that might not be enough to hold off a handful of SEC and ACC teams looking to secure at-large bids.

No. 18 Michigan at Maryland (4 pm, Big Ten Network)

Michigan needs to win to keep, yeah, you get the idea.

No. 16 Georgia Tech vs Pitt (7 pm, ESPN)

A win for Tech essentially gives them two shots at locking up a playoff bid, while Pitt needs to win out and get help for a chance at the ACC title. This might be the best matchup of quarterbacks in the country this week, and with real stakes this is surely the most important game on the schedule.

No. 11 BYU at Cincinnati (8 pm, FOX)

Cincy is still feisty, while a BYU win probably gets them into the Big 12 title game for a rematch with Texas Tech.

Praise be, we enjoyed these things, some of which require a subscription.

Just going to post this headline from Grant Marek at SFGATE unabridged: The night ESPN watched two college mascots try to kill each other. A serious, and much needed, investigation into the Dallas Cowboys’ pants by Or Give Me Death. SOUTH ALABAMA BABY RACE. Emma Baccellieri at Sports Illustrated on a new women’s pro baseball league and the reemergence of Mo’ne Davis. The Australian Football League held its draft over the last two nights, in case you want to keep tabs on any future Sun Belt punters.