The worst part about the expanded playoff is that the national media tends to frame every single week of college football around who is in and who is out of the 12-team dance. In a sport that derives most of its charm from two 5-6 teams that hate each other battling to the death for a December trip to Myrtle Beach, worrying about a playoff berth during the third quarter of an October conference game seems silly.

That said, at this juncture of the season, it does provide some useful macro framing for what teams need to do with their remaining schedule to have a chance at reaching the mountaintop. Most of the teams that haven’t already officially or unofficially fired their coaches still have a theoretical chance of qualifying for the postseason, but dividing lines are beginning to be drawn.

Given the lack of relative depth in the sport’s other major conference, and the usual chaos eradicating Big 12 and ACC contenders, it feels pretty likely that we’ll have three or four SEC teams in the playoff. In most scenarios, it seems that 10-2 will get a conference team in, and three losses will probably be on the wrong side of the bubble.

Using that framing, we have a pretty clear goal for everyone: lose three games and you are out. We’re no longer focused on the ceiling, we just want to avoid water damage in the foundation.

ESPN’s FPI gives ten different SEC teams a better than 10% chance of making the playoff, and that neatly aligns with the ten teams that have two or fewer losses through eight weeks of the regular season.

The upshot: these final five matchups for each contender are essentially elimination games, with any loss either cratering their postseason odds or those of their opponent.

Let’s take a look at each of those ten programs, their upcoming schedule and potential potholes. In the spirit of the legendary MXC, we’ll also highlight what would be the most painful elimination each team could endure.

Alabama Crimson Tide (6-1), 89.6%

Remaining games: South Carolina, No. 20 LSU, No. 13 Oklahoma, Eastern Illinois, Auburn

Seeing anyone with a nearly 90% chance to make the playoffs feels a little silly at this point, given the thesis of this entire section, but then you look at the games left for Alabama and yeah that feels about right. The Tide get at least one more slip-up free pass and it’s hard to envision any two of these teams taking them down.

Most painful elimination: This would take two losses, so a combination of losing to LSU (and giving Brian Kelly his biggest win to date) and then faceplanting against an Auburn team that might have an interim coach to complete the collapse.

Texas A&M Aggies (7-0), 85.2%

Remaining games: No. 20 LSU, No. 15 Missouri, South Carolina, Samford, No. 22 Texas

Even though the Aggies have the most margin for error remaining, both by ranking and losses, their position still feels a bit more precarious than that percentage would indicate simply because they don’t have a signature win and could still drop an upcoming game to a lesser team and it wouldn’t be surprising. You need two losses to truly feel uncomfortable, but any of LSU, Mizzou or rival Texas could still bite back.

Most painful elimination: Going out not with a bang (rivalry loss to Texas) but with a whimper (slow bleed to the point where that Black Friday game doesn’t even matter).

Georgia Bulldogs (6-1), 82.4%

Remaining games: Florida, Mississippi State, No. 22 Texas, Charlotte, No. 7 Georgia Tech

Not sure how many people had Georgia Tech pegged as the second-toughest game on Georgia’s schedule this year, but that seems to be the case and the Yellow Jackets are certainly the biggest test of the remaining games. Getting to that matchup undefeated likely gets Georgia into the SEC title game, so the result may not matter, but one upset might suddenly turn Clean, Old Fashioned Hate into a win-and-in rivalry game – another major rebuttal that an expanded playoff has devalued the regular season.

Most painful elimination: Until last season, the rivalry with Georgia Tech hadn’t been much of a rivalry since Paul Johnson retired. Losing in Atlanta to a likely playoff-bound Tech team would be a new and unpleasant role-reversal for Kirby Smart.

Ole Miss Rebels (6-1), 48.5%

Remaining games: No. 13 Oklahoma, South Carolina, The Citadel, Florida, Mississippi State

A win against Oklahoma would seemingly set up a comfortable journey down the home stretch for the Rebels, but we thought the same thing last year before they lost to Kentucky(???) and Florida. The last thing anyone in Oxford wants is for the Egg Bowl to be a game with additional stakes.

Most painful elimination: The Annual Lane Kiffin Dumb Loss rearing up at the worst possible time, with Florida once again keeping the Rebels just short of the dance.

Oklahoma Sooners (6-1), 43.7%

Remaining games: No. 8 Ole Miss, No. 17 Tennessee, No. 4 Alabama, No. 15 Missouri, No. 20 LSU

Jesus, that schedule. The Sooners are going to have to be dialed the rest of the way to get through that lineup, and hope that an already banged-up skill corps holds up. The gauntlet of remaining opponents might give some false confidence that 9-3 would still be in play, but depending on how results shake out Oklahoma might still lack the true big win the committee values.

Most painful elimination: John Mateer getting hurt again and leaving Sooner fans with a massive what-if that lingers throughout the offseason.

Texas Longhorns (5-2), 39.1%

Remaining games: Mississippi State, No. 10 Vanderbilt, No. 5 Georgia, Arkansas, No. 3 Texas A&M

The Longhorns have maybe the most cut-and-dried assignment of anyone we’re discussing today: play like the team we thought they were and they’ll run the table to get in, otherwise wrap up one of the most disappointing seasons in recent memory with an appearance in the Outback Bowl (or whatever it’s called now).

Most painful elimination: Clawing back to contention from a sluggish start, only to lose to little brother Texas A&M on Black Friday with the whole country watching.

Vanderbilt Commodores (6-1), 33.4%

Remaining games: No. 15 Missouri, No. 22 Texas, Auburn, Kentucky, No. 17 Tennessee

The Commodores don’t (and likely won’t) have a strong enough win to get in with three losses, and could get jumped if there are enough 10-2 teams around the country as well. Winning out until the regular season finale against Tennessee might provide enough insulation in the rankings to keep them in, so that needs to be the goal for Clark Lea’s team. The Commodores could also survive a close loss against Mizzou on Saturday, but would need to win out after that.

Most painful elimination: Getting out-talented by a disappointing Texas team would be the saddest way for this Vanderbilt run to end, or maybe Diego Pavia losing for the first time to Hugh Freeze.

Missouri Tigers (6-1), 32%

Remaining games: No. 10 Vanderbilt, No. 3 Texas A&M, Mississippi State, No. 13 Oklahoma, Arkansas

Doesn’t 32% feel a bit high given that schedule? I’m assuming that number drops precipitously close to zero with a loss against Vanderbilt on Saturday.

Most painful elimination: Losing decisively to Vanderbilt would pretty immediately drop the Tigers to perceived irrelevance in the conference, something Mizzou fans have chafed against since their arrival in 2012.

Tennessee Volunteers (5-2), 16.9%

Remaining games: Kentucky, No. 13 Oklahoma, New Mexico State, Florida, No. 10 Vanderbilt

This wasn’t supposed to be a playoff year, given roster turnover and an always-difficult set of permanent opponents, but the Volunteers still have a real chance. Losing close games to Alabama and Georgia doesn’t erode much benefit of the doubt, and this is a winnable schedule down the stretch. Anything but winning out will not get it done, but there is a clearer road to that reality than we might have otherwise thought.

Most painful elimination: Getting to a virtual play-in game and being knocked out by a playoff-bound Vanderbilt and Heisman finalist Diego Pavia would be uncomfortably bleak, even for modern Tennessee fans.

LSU Tigers (5-2), 14.6%

Remaining games: No. 3 Texas A&M, No. 4 Alabama, Arkansas, Western Kentucky, No. 13 Oklahoma

If the Tigers can win out against that remaining schedule, they absolutely deserve to be in the dance. A nearly 15% chance that happens feels incredibly high, though. Brian Kelly getting run out of Baton Rouge after losing any of the remaining games feels a lot more likely.

Most painful elimination: Any of these games effectively knock the Tigers out of contention, but being uncompetitive against Alabama would be especially unpleasant.

Maggie Rogers absolutely rocks, and I love the “This Must Be The Place” vibes this song gives off. Additional required listening: her Tiny Desk concert, and the video where Pharrell listens to “Alaska” for the first time and has no notes.

Soup szn rolls on. This is a really easy way to add some heft to your soup playbook for fall.

No. 8 Ole Miss at No. 13 Oklahoma

The prospect of Trinidad Chambliss, much as we love him, going up against a Brent Venables defense that specializes in forcing bad decisions from passers does not exactly spark joy. As noted above, both teams really need this one to feel any kind of comfortable down the stretch, so expect stress-induced mistakes from players and coaches throughout.

Auburn at Arkansas

We can all see how this is going to go, right? Bobby Petrino needs a win to get himself into real consideration for the permanent job, and Hugh Freeze has spent the week having a Mean Girls cold shoulder-off with his AD.

The Hogs are going to get out to an early lead, Auburn is going to get back into the game with a turnover and then a furious comeback attempt will come up somewhere between one and three points short.

Also, if you could gamble on a controversial officiating decision impacting a game, I would put your life savings on exactly that happening here.

No. 4 Alabama at South Carolina

It still feels like the Gamecocks are going to pick up one big win this season – there’s too much talent at the premium positions for it to not just all click for one game. That said, it really doesn’t feel like this will be that game. Alabama is as hot as anyone in the country, even though the run game still hasn’t gotten going to the level we’d expect.

No. 15 Missouri at No. 10 Vanderbilt

Neither team has a truly big win in their collection just yet, so in a weird way both squads would really benefit from this being a close game to not devalue the opponent. Also Gameday is in Nashville for just the second time ever – remember the chaotic beauty of the first one and Vanderbilt legend Mackenzi Adams.

No. 22 Texas at Mississippi State

Are we totally sure Texas is going to win this one? There’s so much talent on that roster that it should click eventually, but you could say that about Penn State too.

No. 3 Texas A&M at No. 20 LSU

Vegas doesn’t quite trust the Aggies as much as their ranking would indicate, or maybe it still values a night game in Death Valley over team strength, with just a 2.5-point spread here. If LSU wins, it’ll have to come in an ugly, low-scoring affair.

No. 17 Tennessee at Kentucky

The head says Tennessee rolls in this one. The heart says a frigid night game in Lexington is spooky, no matter who you are. Split the difference and expect a sloppy win by the Vols, don’t change the channel unless it’s still close late.

Always delightful to see a band, any band, play Neck in Tiger Stadium.

I’ve long been a proponent of exceptionally lighthearted logos and uniforms, and firmly against teams (especially in the NFL) going down the route of branding as a paramilitary outfit.

You won’t get a better example of this dichotomy than the uniforms two title contenders suit up in this week. Miami is going with literal army fatigues, while Oregon is celebrating the Grateful Dead. You tell me which one you’d rather suit up in.

Look, if any school (besides, you know, Army) can do camo it’s Miami – there’s an actually cool nostalgic nod to the 1987 Fiesta Bowl somewhere in here. But still, no one really needs to do camo uniforms.

What a fun idea! I can’t help but feel like this is a bit of a missed opportunity to be even weirder, though. Doing a Grateful Dead uniform that’s almost entirely black leaves a little bit of creativity on the cutting room floor. Mostly, I just wish Bill Walton was still with us to attend this game.

No. 16 Virginia at North Carolina

Hey, you guys want to see the greatest NFL coach of all time give up 60 points to a coach who was all-but-fired two months ago and a transfer quarterback from North Texas? Cool, then watch this.

No. 18 South Florida at Memphis

Despite the Tigers’ borderline-incomprehensible loss to UAB last week, these are still the two frontrunners for the G5 playoff bid. Expect fireworks.

No. 11 BYU at Iowa State

Texas Tech’s unexpected loss last week truly opens the door up for chaos in the Big 10. BYU sits in prime position, but surely the Cougars aren’t going to run the table with a freshman quarterback who is making plenty of freshman quarterback mistakes, right?

No. 1 North Dakota State vs. No. 2 South Dakota State

Yes, this is an FCS game. It’s also the FCS Game of the Century, something happening with increasing regularity as these two schools distance themselves as the clear top programs in the division.

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Dylan Tovitz, Deputy Sports Editor at our old stomping grounds The Vanderbilt Hustler, worked with the football team to set up a kicking clinic for students ahead of the College Gameday field goal contest; LOUVRE HEIST DETAILS AND SPECULATION from Heist Enthusiast Brian Grubb; Insider trading has reached the NBA, as Bloomberg’s Matt Levine details; Tennessee fans are irate because national champion baseball coach Tony Vitello is headed to the San Fransisco Giants, Michael Baumann at Fangraphs talks about why this is the most interesting hire in decades for the majors; NPR Music asks an important question: who is the Mariah Carey of Halloween songs?