In the words of the immortal Shania Twain: looks like we made it, look how far we’ve come.

Just about 21 weeks ago, the college football season kicked off in Dublin with Iowa State holding off Kansas State in a ranked matchup of dark horse playoff contenders. Ultimately, neither team amounted to much of a threat in the Big 12 conference, and each will break in a brand new head coach heading into 2026.

The AP poll from that same week looks almost unrecognizable now, with Texas, Penn State and Clemson among the top four. Arch Manning was the clear Heisman favorite (hey, we’re probably doing that again next season too). For as short as the season can feel sometimes, it sure feels like a long time ago that we held such high hopes for those programs.

Our two title contenders started the year ranked, but nowhere near the lofty perch of title contenders. Miami, coming off a disappointing near-miss last season, clocked in at No. 10. Indiana rode a magical playoff appearance in 2024 to a No. 20 ranking, with some scattered optimism about the returning starters and transfer addition Fernando Mendoza. 

Two months ago, we got the first College Football Playoff Committee rankings of the season. Even then, Miami was left for dead at No. 18. The Hurricanes needed a series of minor miracles just to make the playoff field – much to the chagrin of situationship partner Notre Dame – and got all the breaks to fall their way all the way through three playoff wins as an underdog.

As much as we watch, read, and think about this sport, we almost never know exactly what is coming. Indiana is now the preeminent juggernaut of the sport, Mario Cristobal has successfully navigated several fourth quarter game management situations in a row, and two teams nobody saw coming are meeting in Miami for a national title.

Tonight, we get a final resolution to this wonderful, wild season. I’m so glad we made it.

Lets go, girls.

A Cuban-inspired way to prepare a brisket for the game in Miami. Hard to go wrong with any number of Ropa Vieja recipes out there, but this one is especially achievable in your kitchen.

I’m not going to sugarcoat this: Indiana is a much better team than Miami is. The Hurricanes have enough top end talent to make things interesting, especially on the lines, but Indiana has proven to be a comprehensive death machine straight out of the 2012 Alabama playbook – only the Hoosiers also have the presumptive No. 1 pick in April’s NFL Draft starting at quarterback instead of A. J. McCarron.

Where The Game Will Be Won

The key battle of this game will be the matchup between Indiana’s offensive line and Miami’s elite pass rush. For all that’s been made about the Hoosiers’ portal additions, maybe the smartest thing Curt Cignetti has done is load up on experience up front – the starting five linemen for Indiana have combined for over 170 career starts, roughly 35 games each – and I’d argue that offensive line is the single group where you would most prefer experience over talent ceiling in college football, where the difference in body composition between an 18 and 23-year-old is most magnified regardless of recruiting stars.

For Miami to have a chance in this game, defensive ends Rueben Bain and Akheem Mesidor need to live in the backfield. They’ve certainly done that throughout the playoff, as the Hurricanes have generated sacks on nearly 10% of opponent dropbacks this postseason (national average is 5.6%), even with a fairly low blitz rate.

Fernando Mendoza handled pressure fairly well early in the season, but he’s also spent most of the year not being pressured at all and that has shown up in the meat of the season. In the last three games (B1G Championship against Ohio State, playoffs against Alabama and Oregon), his sack rate has crept up to 10.6% and has been dropped on more than 30% of all pressures (national average is 17.1%).

If Miami can get to Mendoza early and often, the Hurricanes can slow the game down to their tempo and drag Indiana into a fistfight.

The Other Side

Even if the Miami defense disrupts Indiana like no one else has all season, they’ll still have to score points. Mario Cristobal wants to keep the ball on the ground as much as possible (and keep Carson Beck from needing to declare “It’s Carson Beck Time”), and Mark Fletcher has paced a ground attack that ranks 10th in the country in rushing success rate. Unfortunately, Indiana’s defense is third in the country at that same metric.

Which means Carson Beck is probably, actually, going to have to win this game for Miami. He’s shown up in the playoffs as the steady hand Miami hoped for – though maybe not worth the reported $4 million paycheck – and led a legitimately thrilling game-winning drive in the semifinals. He has the arm talent and the experience to keep the speedboat between the navigational beacons, but he’ll need to do that and come up with something in the clutch.

There are a lot of ifs here, but they don’t stack up to something impossible. It will require everything to click for Miami in a way it hasn’t all season, but that’s how college football works sometimes.

Prognostication

I hope this game is close. I really do. It would be such a fun way to end a weird, weird season.

But I don’t think that’s what will happen. I think that Indiana gifts Miami an early turnover, then plays flawless football the rest of the way to win comfortably and cement its status among the all-time playoff-era teams. The sport’s greatest turnaround, complete.

Sending us out on a high note with the Marching 100 of Florida A&M.