Among the million ways the transfer portal has changed college football, one of the most interesting is the almost immediate feedback we get on the success or failure of free agency decisions each season. This isn’t the NFL, where salary caps and contracts that can span more than five years add extra considerations to the analysis, we get to just give a thumbs up or thumbs down based purely on performance.

What’s even more fun is the transparency of the process, where we get to play what-if on sliding doors moments in the recruitment cycle. This year’s tournament is an especially instructive example, where one transfer decision (and the screwy calendar that puts the portal in the middle of the sport’s postseason) directly impacted the two teams battling for the national title on Monday and another that very easily could’ve been there too.

On December 11, 2024, Fernando Mendoza officially entered the transfer portal following a stellar sophomore season at Cal, and was promptly rated the No. 2 available quarterback by most recruiting services. By all reports, two schools that immediately began negotiating for his services were Georgia and Miami.

This is where the timeline comes in. That year, the transfer window opened in December – before any playoff games had taken place. Georgia had just played in the SEC championship game, where Carson Beck (widely expected to leave for the NFL Draft following the season) sustained a serious elbow injury just before halftime. Suddenly, Gunner Stockton was thrust into the spotlight and acquitted himself well enough to win over the Georgia coaches and locker room and insert himself as the favorite to take over as the Bulldogs’ starter in 2025.

Had Beck stayed healthy, Mendoza might have gone to Athens knowing that he would be the likely starter. Had the portal opened after Stockton’s underwhelming Sugar Bowl performance against Notre Dame, Mendoza still might have bet on himself to emerge as the signal caller. Instead, too many unknowns kept the Bulldogs from being a perfect fit. Stockton had a good year for Kirby Smart, but it’s hard not to imagine how different the season could have looked if the now-Heisman winner had landed in Mike Bobo’s offense.

Miami was the other school in on Mendoza from the beginning, a natural fit as the hometown school. The Hurricanes approached with a lucrative offer, but Mendoza valued proven quarterback development in choosing his destination and reportedly took less money to head to Bloomington. Heading into Monday as the Heisman winner, heavy favorite to win a national title, and the consensus top quarterback in April’s NFL Draft, it feels safe to say he made the right decision.

Beck had his own sliding-doors moment with the process. Entering 2024 as the frontrunner to emerge as the No. 1 pick in the draft, he had an up-and-down season filled with headlines both on and off the field. The injury in the SEC championship game complicated his future even further – with feedback that he would likely be a 3rd-round pick at best, he decided to return to school. Allegedly, following Mendoza’s commitment to Indiana, he solicited an eye-watering NIL deal from Miami – and was met with a quick thanks but no thanks when he asked the Georgia staff to match.

Much was made about a potential showdown between Beck and the Bulldogs in the semifinals, but now we’ll get an even clearer picture of which school pulled exactly the right strings just 13 months ago in the portal window.

Carson Beck won the game with his legs. In this weird, unexpected season of college football, of course he did.

Beck’s 3-yard scramble to the endzone with just 18 seconds left capped off an absolutely bonkers fourth quarter that saw for lead changes and an Ole Miss desperation heave to the endzone that came closer to connecting than it had any right to.

Miami did what we expected, running the ball almost exclusively to control the clock and slowly wear down the Ole Miss defense. The Hurricanes missed a few early opportunities to build a bigger lead, but firmly controlled the lines early – almost exactly how Georgia did the week before against Pete Golding’s upstart team.

I’m a firm believer that there is no such thing as scored too fast in college football, as long as it forces the opposition to need a touchdown in response to win outright. And Trinidad Chambliss’ bomb to Dae'Quan Wright with 3:13 did feel like a setup for Miami to kick a field goal and take this instant classic into overtime more than anything, but Beck and the Hurricanes responded beautifully – converting four separated third downs to keep the game alive before the final score.

Just look at the win probability chart, helpfully annotated by ESPN’s Bill Connelly:

All the pieces assembled through high school recruiting classes and big-money transfer additions came together for Mario Cristobal and the Hurricanes, and their reward is a chance to play for a national title in their home stadium. 

Indiana kicked Oregon’s ass from the first snap of the game. There, that’s pretty much all you need to know. Almost every year of the four-team playoff featured at least one blowout (expected or otherwise) in the semifinals, and we certainly got that here.

The Hoosiers forced a pick-six on Oregon’s first snap of the game and never gave the Ducks any breathing room, even when the outcome was well and truly decided.

A more interesting topic than breaking down the rest of this game: if they win on Monday, where does this Indiana team rank among the all-time champions? In no particular order, I think these are the five best title-winning teams of the playoff era and Indiana would certainly join the list with a trophy:

Let me know in the comments where you’d rank Indiana in the all-time title teams.

Stick around for the Oregon band’s rendition of Welcome to the Black Parade around the 7-minute mark.

For one last time in the 2025-2026 season, let’s take a look at how the teams in the Southeastern Conference stack up.