2025 has been a tremendous year for the agents who negotiated massive buyouts for their coaching clients. James Franklin just picked up a cool $50 million to not coach at Penn State anymore, and the six other coaches fired already this season grabbed a combined $45 million for the trouble of free Saturday afternoons.

We knew this would be a tumultuous year in the SEC, with last year the first time in recent memory with no turnover in the head coach ranks. Sam Pittman and Arkansas mutually agreed to open the first vacancy of the year in the conference before he even had a chance to put out the Halloween decorations, and there are certainly more to come.

Today, let’s focus on the two coaches remaining who still feel like they could be gone before Thanksgiving, and another dark horse candidate who has a surprisingly big matchup looming on Saturday. Though none of the three play each other the rest of the way, it feels increasingly apparent that at least one won’t survive the season and will cash in on their own massive buyout.

Billy Napier, Florida: $21 million

Billy has made a habit of remarkable escapes already in his short time manning the sidelines in Gainesville. Last year’s wins against LSU and Ole Miss almost certainly kept him from clearing out his desk, and a win earlier this season over a highly-touted Texas team bought a little goodwill.

But we’ve reached the end of the rope. Industry reports say that another loss this season is likely the end for Napier, though the schedule still sets up nicely for him to salvage things.

First things first, a loss against Mississippi State on Saturday would be immediate cause for a firing. The Gators have a bye next week before the annual matchup with Georgia, and ADs love nothing more than making personnel decisions heading into a break.

But a win here could set things in motion for Napier to pull together one last job. The only ranked team remaining are Georgia (who looks shaky, and the game is at a neutral site), Ole Miss (who got beat by a worse Florida team last year) and Tennessee (who has to come to Gainesville for an always charged rivalry matchup).

Verdict: Fired after losing to Georgia November 1

Hugh Freeze, Auburn: $15.4 million

Man, it feels like the Tigers have been really close to getting over the hump a couple of times in the last year, but keep coming up short. Hugh and the Auburn boosters have plenty of legitimate beef with SEC officiating in that time, but that doesn’t change that they just haven’t won any of the big game opportunities they’ve had.

The rest of the schedule isn’t exactly a murderers’ row, but it has enough visible potholes that the administration might just want to avoid while the ink dries on John Sumrall’s impending contract.

First up, Auburn absolutely believes it occupies a higher position in the pecking order than Missouri, this weekend’s opponent. A definitive loss to the other Tigers would make it pretty hard to argue that’s still the case, and could be enough for boosters to pull the plug.

Next is Arkansas and interim coach Bobby Petrino, who Auburn has tried to hire on multiple occasions. No one on the plains wants a painful reminder of those failed attempts while losing to a deflated Hogs team.

You’ve also got Vanderbilt, and a chance for Freeze to drop a fourth consecutive game to Diego Pavia, and a probably pretty depressing Iron bowl loss to Alabama coming down the track. Even if things aren’t critically bad yet – and they might be behind the scenes, as we track the super weird standoff between Freeze and now former team captain Damari Alston – does it really feel like it’s going to get better?

Verdict: “Retires” at the conclusion of the regular season, coaches in a bowl game if Auburn makes one

Dark Horse: Brian Kelly, LSU: $53.3 million

For all the bad vibes surrounding his entire tenure, it would still be pretty wild for LSU to fire Kelly now. Tie Tigers have perpetual recruiting momentum and always feel one hot stretch away from truly contending for a national title.

On the flip side, the Tigers are underdogs against Vanderbilt this weekend and the offense is horrific to watch. The next two games are against seemingly elite Texas A&M and Alabama. We’re pretty much down to the brass tacks, either LSU emerges from this stretch a true title contender or the boosters in Baton Rouge start assembling the money to move on.

Verdict: Left on the tarmac after losing to Alabama November 8

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No. 10 LSU at No. 17 Vanderbilt

Vanderbilt is favored at every major sportsbook against a top ten LSU team, and advanced stats largely back it up. We’re living in a very strange new world.

No. 14 Oklahoma at South Carolina

Someone’s season is going completely off the rails here, while the result might just depend on who has the healthier quarterback.

No. 4 Texas A&M at Arkansas

Genuinely funny subplot here: Bobby Petrino was the OC at A&M just two years ago and there are definitely some players still there who would love nothing more than to absolutely stomp him in this game. The Aggies are absolutely rolling, but this still feels like a game that could go awry.

No. 5 Ole Miss at No. 9 Georgia

When the playoff expanded to 12 teams, a common argument was that it would devalue the regular season. I’d argue it’s pretty clear that the opposite has happened – more games have playoff implications than ever before and big matchups are fun to watch no matter what – but this game is exactly what those detractors were thinking about. A loss doesn’t really do much to crater either team’s season, though it would remove almost all margin for error.

Mississippi State at Florida

The stakes are pretty clear for the Gators, with a bye coming up Billy Napier is certainly fired with a loss in this game. A win would let the embattled staff get another shot – against a potentially wobbly Georgia team in Jacksonville – to stay employed.

No. 21 Texas at Kentucky

I wouldn’t make any effort to watch this game unless the Wildcats are leading in the fourth quarter.

No. 6 Alabama vs No. 11 Tennessee

A combined 80 points in a Third Saturday in October game would make old-school SEC fans cringe, but this is our new reality and it’s going to be thrilling to watch.

No. 16 Missouri at Auburn

Huge opportunity for Missouri to stablize the narrative after last week’s loss to Alabama. Auburn needs this one badly or the season might snowball downhill in a hurry.

Doing this solo with a trombone is insane.

Jackson State is rolling out a set of uniforms inspired by the legendary Sonic Boom of the South band for its homecoming game. The Tigers take the field against Alabama State in a matchup of the two top-ranked HBCU teams Saturday at 2:30 on ESPNU.

No. 2 Miami vs Louisville

The Canes are extremely back, and a less-than-stellar year from the rest of the expected ACC contenders means we’re almost certainly seeing them in the playoffs. But Louisville has enough juice to make this one interesting, and a loss at this point in the season could still derail a potential banner year in Coral Gables.

North Carolina at Cal

lol, a 10:30pm kickoff on a Friday for Bill Belichick and the Tar Heels is maybe the surest sign yet that we’ve kind of overcooked it with conference expansion. This will not be a good football game, but will produce some entertaining screenshots of Bill getting progressively more and more annoyed on the sideline.

No. 12 Georgia Tech at Duke

Hey, is Georgia Tech the second-best team in the ACC this year?

No. 15 BYU vs No. 23 Utah

The Holy War is always appointment viewing, especially in a year like this where both teams still have playoff hopes. The winner of this one is probably the biggest threat to Texas Tech in the Big 12.

Praise be, we enjoyed these things, some of which require a subscription.

Bill Connelly joined the fantastic Channel 6 newsletter ($) to break down the different tempos of college offenses, and how styles make fights; Friend of the Program NASCARCASM with your beginner’s guide to the Talladega infield ahead of Sunday’s playoff race; Rodger Sherman with a wonderful breakdown of just how awful the Trent Dilfer tenure at UAB was; Was Paul Wall the best role player of 2000s pop music? Andrew Unterberger at Billboard sure thinks so; NEW FAR SIDE CARTOONS; No Laying Up followed the US Walker Cup team and put together a wonderful Week in the Life episode about the 2023 competition at the Old Course.